"What happens in wars between the strong and the weak when the weak side applies unconventional or guerrilla tactics?"
Surprisingly, according to findings obtained by political scientist Ivan Arreguin-Toft, the weaker party's winning percentage climbs from 28.5% to 63.6% - the weaker country wins a third of the time.
To put this idea in perspectives is Lawrence of Arabia who led the Arabs in their revolt against the Turkish army occupying Arabia near the end of World War I.
The Turks had a formidable modern army while Lawrence commanded a band of unskilled Bedouin nomads.
“Our largest available resources were the tribesmen whose assets were speedy movement, endurance, individual intelligence, knowledge of the country and courage.” He wrote.
This allowed them to do the impossible, namely, attack Aqaba from the east, a strategy so audacious that the Turks never saw it coming.
My two cents: Though an improbable event, the application of unconventional philosophy and tactics allows for underdog victories.
(The Theory of Asymmetrical conflict.)
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